Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • Italy
  • France
  • North Macedonia
  • Montenegro
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Czechia
  • Armenia
  • Slovenia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $550,264$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,196$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,303.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,303.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $535,068$ on 2020-11-19

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,541,574$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,291$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,686.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,686.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,348,907$ on 2020-11-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,456,940$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53,870$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,666.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,666.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,399,828$ on 2020-11-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,308,528$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47,870$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,140.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,140.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $761,671$ on 2020-11-19

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,137,096$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47,201$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,034.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,034.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,936,750$ on 2020-11-19

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,213$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,423$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,313.5}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 236.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,313.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,586$ on 2020-11-19

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,577$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,388.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 297.5)}}\) (asimptote \(122,388.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $420$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,229.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 272.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,229.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,413$ on 2020-11-19

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,757$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,153$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,573$ on 2020-11-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 81%
Czechia recovered 49%
Armenia recovered 23%
Slovenia recovered 15%
Slovakia recovered 8%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,231$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 24.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $233$ on 2020-11-19

Czechia⮸

Population $10,708,981$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $481,755$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{661,717.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 242.1)}}\) (asimptote \(661,717.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,874$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $95,501$ on 2020-11-19

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $121,979$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,870$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,904.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,904.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,721$ on 2020-11-19

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,034$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $964$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,917$ on 2020-11-19